Saturday, October 31, 2015

Arguments for Empire

Warning: the below is very imprecise. I'm going to be talking about "Europe" as if it's a single entity. It's clearly not. There are a dozen different levels of integration, with groups defined along dimensions of politics, economics, and travel.
Throwing NATO into the mix makes things even more complicated, since it's a military alliance that largely but not completely overlaps the EU. (Blue is EU, orange is NATO, purple is both.)

Here, though, I'm going to talk about Europe as if it's an entity capable of making unified decisions along all these lines. Because my argument depends on that, it is also an argument for greater European integration.

Europe is in an interesting position in the world right now. By any economic standard, it is a superpower: its GDP exceeds that of the United States, and its GDP per capita is quite high as well. But its military spending is only 1.55% of GDP, compared to the United States 3-3.5%. Europe clearly has the capability to be a military powerhouse, and chooses not to do so.

Why they've made this collective choice is largely a matter of history. The last two times there were major military buildups in Europe, large fractions of the population died. Since World War 2, European defense has been guaranteed by NATO, meaning the United States. (Well, and the Warsaw Pact for a while there.) Since the end of the Cold War, there's been no perceived need for Europe to defend itself. They've been unthreatened, able to spend their money on things like education and health care and social programs. More power to them in that regard.

But Europe doesn't have the geographic luxury of playing the isolationist, when 80% of the world's population can walk there. South Sudan and Somalia have been disasters for decades. When Syria disintegrated, the problem got ten times worse. There are a finite number of refugees Europe can absorb, and they're reaching that point rapidly.

Europe can not afford to continue playing such a passive role in the world. When a country like Lybia or Syria collapses, it is now everybody's problem, at least everybody who doesn't have an ocean between them and the catastrophe. Consequently, Europe must help to prevent and overcome such destabilizations. We must put in place a process to deal with failed states, rather than ignoring the problem.

Put another way, which is cheaper: absorbing half a million migrants? Or sending twenty thousand troops to occupy and stabilize Syria?

Yes, I'm an American. Iraq and Syria and Afghanistan were destabilized by the actions of my government, directly leading to this migrant crisis that Europe and Turkey are now forced to handle. But fault is irrelevant when discussing solutions. This migrant crisis will not stop. If it hadn't been caused by this, it would have been something else.

From a certain perspective, being overrun with refugees or economic migrants is no different than being threatened by an external military: you have nice things, other people want them, and they'll come take them if it's cost-effective to do so. The only way Europe can prevent being peacefully plundered, today or tomorrow, is to actively reach beyond its borders to keep the world more stable.

I speak of Europe, but the same can be said for Turkey. Turkey's military is formidable, but they've absorbed millions of refugees rather than use their military to stabilize Syria. I suspect this is due to balance of power issues between them and the other two major players in the region, Saudi Arabia and Iran.

For that matter, the same can be said for the United States and immigration from Latin America. The best way to prevent illegal immigration is to make Mexico and Central America safe places to live and work.

Major powers in the world go to great lengths to avoid being perceived as imperialist. Colonialism in the past has led to tremendous harm (see the existence of Syria and Iraq). But in a world of failed states, especially a world as connected as ours has become, a new kind of colonialism may be the most cost-effective solution for all involved.

Tuesday, August 11, 2015

2016 Presidential Candidates: Republicans, Part 2

Rick Perry
Rick Perry is presently the governor of Texas. Much of the below is about his record in that position, as well as statements he made during is 2012 Presidential campaign. As a point of interest, the majority of his state does not support him running for President.
  • Is presently facing charges for abusing power
  • Is owned by AT&T
    • Much like our local rep Marsha Blackburn
  • Collected $90,000 a year in retirement benefits while still working
    • So we should cut government spending everywhere except on Rick Perry
  • Rejected free federal money to expand Texas' Medicaid program, meaning over 300,000 Texans (including 40,000 veterans) have been without insurance so Perry could make a political point
  • Passed a bill requiring women to have ultrasounds before having an abortion
    • And then passed another one effectively shutting down almost every abortion clinic in Texas
    • Regardless of your moral position on abortion (which I hold to be tragic and in many cases a moral wrong), I don't hold that it's therefore morally correct to torment women who choose to have one; nor do I hold it to be correct for Perry to pass laws that are unconstitutional. If his religious beliefs contradict the laws of the United States, he should resign, not violate his oath.
  • Gutted funding for child services when 24% of children in his state live in poverty
    • So make sure they're born, but after that? Screw 'em. They should get a job. A little consistency, please?
  • Tried to keep a bill making homosexuality a crime on the books
    • Again, it is in no way the job of a Christian to punish other people for not following our specific religious beliefs. Getting away from that crap is entirely why the original colonists came here in the first place! But Perry apparently thinks that is his job as a Christian, even if it contradicts his oath of office and the teachings of Christ. 
    • ...because Satan
  • Opposed the federal government bailout of state governments, then claimed credit for using that money to balance the Texas budget one year
    • To counter the deficit he created, I might add, with the typical cut-taxes-to-increase-revenue lies that do not work
    • More than doubled the debt owed by the state of Texas
      • Why do we think he would do better as President? Not really clear
  • Wants to send troops back to Iraq even though Iraq as a sovereign nation kicked us out; new decade, new invasion of Iraq!
  • Dramatically cut funding to Texas firefighters, then asked for federal funds when wildfires broke out and his people couldn't handle it
  • Dramatically cut funding to schools, resulting in (gasp) a failing educational system
  • Has overseen huge numbers of executions, including one confirmed wrongful one, which he's specifically said doesn't bother him at all
  • Blatantly lied about the number of homicides committed by illegal immigrants
    • And about terrorists captured trying to cross the Mexican border
  • Censored an environmental report he didn't like
  • Supports decriminalization of marijuana
Marco Rubio

Donald Trump

Bobby Jindal
Chris Christie
Scott Walker
  • Cut taxes, sending Wisconsin into tremendous deficits
  • Said dealing with massive protests against him prepares him to deal with ISIS
  • Spent much of his political career lengthening prison sentences
    • Then advocating for more private prisons to deal with the resulting overcrowding
    • While taking huge contributions from the private prison industry
  • Wants to functionally eliminate unions nationwide
  • Wants to implement drug testing for food stamps and other programs
  • Passed a law making it unconstitutionally difficult to obtain an abortion in Wisconsin
  • Would attempt to unilaterally cancel the new nuclear non-proliferation deal with Iran
  • Opposes increasing the minimum wage on false premises





Friday, July 17, 2015

Reducing Wrongful Convictions: Better Juries

The most critical means of reducing wrongful convictions is to have better juries. When you consider being summoned for jury duty, what is your reaction? Dread? Annoyance?

If so, you're part of the problem.

Now, I suspect you consider yourself to be of above average intelligence. (And if you have good enough taste to be reading this blog, it's probably true!) So look at it this way: someone is going to be on that jury. Wouldn't you rather it to be someone with half a clue? Think of all the really horribly stupid people that could be sitting in that seat instead of you.

Now look at it another way: you're the one on trial for your life. Do you really want all the intelligent, reasonable people like you to be the ones avoiding jury duty? Leaving you at the mercy of imbeciles? Probably not. Do unto others...

(Quoting Jesus, not maxim 13. Just so we're clear.)

So if you really don't think you'd do a good job, or can't afford the time, fine. But don't try to avoid jury duty just for the personal unpleasantness of it. It's just not cool.

And I'm not going to lie. Jury duty for me wasn't that fun. It wasn't the worst experience of my life, by any means, and I'm glad I did it. But dealing with the kinds of evidence involved in some crimes is not easy. If you can't handle a particular kind of case, they'll probably dismiss you. This is definitely a job, not playtime.

Now there are, of course, other factors besides personal preference that might keep you from serving on a jury. In the United States, your employer has no legal obligation to pay you while you're serving on a jury. That makes it functionally impossible for many people to serve. Spending a week on jury duty at $40 a day is a huge hit to someone who would otherwise have been working a full-time job at $15/hour. For a lot of people, that may be the difference between making rent and not. Juror pay should be at least the usual hourly rate of the juror, with some maximum cap at or above the average wage of the United States. If determining that is too complex, just pay everyone the maximum.

How much money are we talking about spending? There are something like 154,000 jury trials in the US each year. Figure 14 jurors per trial, and that the average trial lasts five days. Add in a little for all the jurors that are summoned but not selected. That means compensating juries costs the US something north of half a billion dollars a year.

I'm suggesting we increase the daily pay by a factor of, say, four, to roughly $20/hour. So we're talking about spending an extra two billion dollars a year, divided among the fifty states and the federal government. We're definitely in the realm of fiscal possibility; that's less than the cost of invading and occupying Iraq for one day. And we actually get something for this!

Other costs need to be accounted for. Jurors may have other non-job obligations, like child or elder care. Assistance should be provided for that as well.

In theory your employer can't fire you for jury duty, either, but that only matters if you can prove that was the reason in a court of law. Good luck proving that! Unfortunately I don't have a good idea for correcting that without throwing out the entire concept of at-will employment. That would have huge ramifications beyond the jury system, so we're just not going to talk about that right now.

We also need to spend some resources educating people as to what jury duty actually involves. (Maybe a blog post...) A lot of people dread it for no defined reason at all. Many have never been summoned. Schools should focus some time on this. One interesting thought might be to show informational videos on the subject at the DMV. After all, you're going to be in that line for three hours. Captive audience!

Friday, July 10, 2015

Reducing Wrongful Convictions: Better Public Defense


The Bill of Rights guarantees you a right to a lawyer when you're on trial, even if you can't afford one. Unfortunately, the lawyers provided by the state are often less than effective. Most public defenders have more work than they canhandle, and are underpaid on top of it. I'm sure many do a fine job even so, but you can't reasonably expect first-class work in those circumstances. The public defender system should be improved, with more pay, more attorneys, and reduced workloads.

Worried about cost? Most states already provide specialized appeal attorneys to death row inmates, and those attorneys often find errors in the original defense lawyer's work. The state ends up with a worst-case scenario: all the cost of a death penalty trial, and no execution (assuming the execution itself to be of value, which we've shown it's not).

Why not save all those man-years of prison resources, not to mention possible lawsuits for false imprisonment, not to mention the moral cost of stealing years of someone's life? States should provide better defense attorneys during the trial phase! Yes, it will cost more on the front end, but we get a better, more trustworthy system of justice out of it.

Also, we need to update the requirements for being provided with a public defender. Even the very poor are in many cases still considered to be able to afford their own defense lawyer. That's both absurd and unamerican. Nobody should have to throw their lives and livelihoods away just to prove their own innocence!

Per the above Mother Jones article, we would need 6,900 more public defenders to get the current workload down to acceptable levels. Say we added 20,000 instead, to account for the additional cases that will be covered by allowing more people to be covered. Median salary for a public defender is around $50,000. So we're talking about spending a billion dollars a year, divided among all the states and the federal government. That's not trivial, but it's doable! For comparison, we spent that during the invasion and occupation of Iraq every eighteen hours.

If you don't have functional courts, you may as well stop pretending to be civilization. We have to stop trying to do justice on the cheap.

Saturday, July 4, 2015

Patriotism

I found myself listening to cable news today. I appreciated the music, and people telling what they loved about America. I appreciated that there were many tributes to the armed forces, as there should be. But it's important to remember that ISIS and Iran and North Korea are not threats to our freedom. Al Qaeda and Iraq and Afghanistan were never threats to our freedom. Vietnam and Panama and Germany and Japan were never threats to our freedom. We've been attacked by outside forces, and Americans have been killed. American soldiers have died by the hundreds of thousands to bring freedom to others. But not since 1814 has American freedom been threatened from outside.

Our freedom is threatened from within, by those that divide us, and try to use fear and anger and lies to manipulate us.

Our freedom is threatened by a government that operates in the shadows, ignoring the will of the people and the rule of law and the rights of man.

Our freedom is threatened by those who deny the rights and humanity and American-ness of their neighbors, and who try to use force of law to punish those who do not share their personal beliefs.

Our freedom is threatened every time someone tries to shout down a dissenting opinion, instead of discussing it, and every time someone rejects a fact that doesn't fit their partisan narrative.

Our freedom is threatened by government dysfunction, by elected representatives more committed to beating the other side than to finding solutions that work, and by elections whose outcomes do not reflect the will of the people.

Our freedom is threatened by a false definition of patriotism, one that says it's unpatriotic to recognize problems and try to fix them.

Our freedom is contingent on the idea that we are, as individuals and as a country, imperfect. The framers created a more perfect union, leaving to us the job of making it more perfect still. If we reject that charge, if we decide we are good enough and that no further improvement is possible, then we surrender our freedom to those in power. Because why should we strive to be better if we're good enough already?

If you call yourself a patriot, then you must ask yourself: how can America be better for all Americans, not just the ones I happen to agree with? And how can I help make that happen?

Happy Independence Day!

Friday, July 3, 2015

Reducing Wrongful Convictions: False Guilty Pleas


Why would someone plead guilty if they're not? Plea bargaining. In a plea bargain, the state tells an accused person "You are going to jail. Just say you did it, even if that's a lie, and you won't go for as long."

A plea bargain is great if the state is dealing with a guilty person. But what if they're dealing with an innocent? Regardless of how good a job the police and district attorneys may do, they will make mistakes occasionally, and accuse the wrong person. That's why we have courts and trials in the first place! Nobody but courts should be determining guilt or innocence.

It's just a matter of incentives. If a truly innocent accused is convinced they're going to jail, they will accept a deal and plead guilty, even if they did nothing. By offering plea bargains, the state is literally threatening innocent people into putting themselves in jail.

There is no justice in this. If we want to reduce the rate of false convictions, we first have to eliminate incentives for innocent people to convict themselves. Plea bargains may save the state time and resources, but only at the cost of the integrity of the entire system. We shouldn't be pushing innocent people to convict themselves. Plea bargains should be illegal.

(Now, I admit, we're not talking about the death penalty any more. Plea bargains contribute to wrongful convictions, but not to wrongful executions. You don't get the death penalty after accepting a plea bargain! What could you have pleaded down from?)

Of course, plea bargains exist to save the state money. So we get back to the same question we asked about the death penalty: what is the dollar value of not incarcerating an innocent person? Compare that against the dollars saved by not going to trial at all. I don't have numbers in this case, but I'm betting it doesn't work out in the plea bargain's favor.

At least, once any value at all is placed on the innocent.

Friday, June 26, 2015

Reducing Wrongful Convictions


The details of implementation are the difference between the death penalty working financially and not. So what if we imagined different details? Can we come up with a better system overall? And if we do, where does that leave the death penalty?

One serious problem with our present system is the high rate of false convictions. This doesn't just apply to capital cases; it needs to be fixed across all cases. The system already admits there's a problem, and tries to ameliorate it by providing appeal attorneys to those on death row. But doing that only for death row inmates, and only after years in prison, is treating a symptom, and treating it poorly at that. We need to keep innocents from being convicted in the first place, of any crime!

So what are the causes of wrongful convictions? I am clearly not a lawyer, but from my naive perspective, I see two ways someone gets convicted: pleading guilty, or being found guilty. I'll talk about both in upcoming posts.

Monday, June 22, 2015

2016 Presidential Candidates: Republicans, Part 1

The way our system is set up, electoral votes in most states are winner-take-all. That essentially disenfranchises most voters in the general election; most states' outcome is a foregone conclusion, meaning your vote doesn't matter. Tennessee's electoral votes will all go to the Republican candidate, so why bother voting for President?

The primaries are a different issue. Your vote there matters much more. The problem, of course, is that there are just so many candidates to get familiar with. The below is my attempt to summarize major public statements and headlines regarding the various declared candidates, with links to relevant news articles. Each name links to the Politifact fact-check of that candidate, and their overall record for truth or lies.

We'll start with the Republicans, because they're just so much more interesting lately. There are so many I'm going to have to break them up into multiple posts. I'm going to do the declared candidates first, in alphabetical order by last name, then cover the likely prospective candidates. I am not covering Jack Fellure or Mark Everson. There's virtually zero information about them.

Note that many of these points may seem like negatives, against the candidates. That is not by design. It is likely a consequence of most headlines about candidates in general being negative. I have, however, injected some commentary. I try to roast all candidates equally. Also note that some candidates have many more points than others. This is also not by design; some simply have fewer headlines about them to choose from.


Jeb Bush
Former governor of Florida, brother of W Bush, son of HW Bush.
Ben Carson
Ted Cruz
  • Opposes net neutrality while loudly demonstrating his ignorance on what it actually is, calling it "Obamacare for the internet"
    • "It would put the government in charge of determining Internet pricing, terms of service and what types of products and services can be delivered, leading to fewer choices, fewer opportunities and higher prices." Everything about that sentence is wrong!
  • Claims global warming isn't happening
  • Thinks emergency care is cheaper than preventive care
  • Missed 10% of votes the Senate held during his time in office
  • Opposes disaster aid from federal government to the states... except his own
  • Supports unlimited campaign contributions
    •  Because it would make things more fair, you see!
  • Shut down the government because his party lost an election, and doesn't regret it
    • Oh, and led protests of the government shutdown 
  • Said that the recent court decisions on gay marriage and Obamacare are "some of the darkest 24 hours in our nation's history"
    •  Aside from, you know, literally thousands of others... get some perspective, man
  • Wants to subject the Supreme Court to retention elections because he doesn't like their decisions 
    • Don't like the way the system works? Break the system.
  • Completely fails to understand how Christians can be opposed to actions of the state of Israel
  • And while it's not about Cruz personally, his father has some very strange pseudo-Christian views of his son being a fulfillment of some made-up end-times prophecy...
Carly Fiorina
  • Completely failed to run HP
  • Opposes net neutrality
  • Lies about corporate tax rates
    • US corporate tax rates are nominally high, but the actual collection rate (i.e. the number that matters) are quite low because of so many loopholes
Lindsey Graham
  • Is willing to raise taxes under some circumstances
    • Of course, his idea of raising taxes is very limited, but it's better than the usual "revenue isn't the problem" lie
  • Seems to have at least some support for environmental issues, if only to bow to political reality and not because he actually believes in them
  • Wants to eliminate habeas corpus, doesn't think imprisoned people should need to be proven guilty
  • Rejects his own party's multiple reports on the Benghazi attacks
  • He said that Obama is not a Socialist, he's a good man!
    • Of course, he also says he's extremely liberal, which you can only say if you have no idea what extreme liberals would actually do...
  • Says you can't govern based on anger, wants to govern based on realism instead
  • Has a completely awful record on foreign policy matters
Mike Huckabee

This guy was governor of Arkansas, ran for President, and now has a Fox News show. He has basically made a living speaking in public for most of my life, so he has more positions than I can possibly cover here. I summarize him thus: America is, was, and should become a Christian nation, wherein his particular version of Christian beliefs are given force of law. This version of Christian beliefs include:
  • Christian education in public schools, including young-earth creationism
  • Support of Israel removing Palestinians from Palestine
  • Banning all non-thereputic abortions, including pregnancies from rape
  • Banning gay marriage or adoption
  • Amending the Constitution to these ends
He's surprisingly sane on some other issues, and kinda nuts on others. Here's a survey of some things that caught my attention, but like all the candidates, I hope you'll read more:
  • Says school shootings happen because God has been removed from schools
    • ...despite the fact that church shootings are far more common...
    • ...and which god is he worshiping, that can be removed from schools? 'Cause mine can't be...
  • Thinks only women who can't control their libido need birth control
  • Thinks we're moving towards the criminalization of Christianity
    • Called the Obama administration "openly hostile toward the Christian faith"
  • Arranged parole for a rapist who raped and murdered again
  • Rejects the principle of judicial review
  • Supports a 30% federal sales tax
    • Cut taxes on the rich, raise taxes on the poor...
  • Says that vaccines don't cause autism! Yay reality!
    • Isn't it sad that I have to point out that he's sane about this?
  • Doesn't understand how the ACA handles pre-existing conditions
  • Wants to vastly increase the size of the American military
    • How is this to be funded? Unclear.
    • But he supports peaceful options with Iran
  • Told people to not enlist in the military until an overtly Christianity-enforcing President is in place
    • Never mind that the last time we had one of those, our military ended up with thousands of dead and tens of thousands of wounded...
George Pataki

And here we find the opposite of Huckabee. For a man who's been in the public spotlight for nearly twenty years, he has relatively few headline-making position statements on major national issues, and most of them are over a decade old. He talks the usual small-government talk, but he's at least somewhat out of step with the typical Republican positions on abortion, the environment, and gun control, which gives me hope he can think independently. I have no reason to think this man is either incompetent or insane.
  • Worked to repeal the ACA
  • Opposes a national sales tax (as of 2000)
Rand Paul

Friday, June 19, 2015

Death Penalty Analysis: Summary

We've looked at four main arguments for the death penalty. Given the wrongful conviction rate is, and will remain, non-zero, argument from justice will always fail. Given the low rate of escape, especially escape with further murders committed, argument from public safety fails. Argument from deterrence is functionally impossible to prove either way. Argument from cost works in theory, but doesn't in practice, because of how our system is set up to minimize wrongful executions.

Should we remove those safeguards? Execute more innocent people to save money?

I imagine most of you will say 'no'. I'll propose one last thought experiment instead: suppose we make all trials for either death penalty or life in prison have the same procedural safeguards. I would argue that that is a good idea; after all, sentencing someone to life in prison is no less taking their life than sentencing someone to die is. Shouldn't they be equally protected? And now the death penalty may actually be cheaper, like in the naive estimate.

But we just made the whole justice system cost-prohibitive; there are a lot more life-in-prison trials than there are death penalty trials. Can society afford to spent tens of billions of dollars on those increased costs? Once again we're putting a price on justice for the innocent. No matter which way you frame it, no matter whether you're talking about death or life, we're always forced to ask the question: what is the dollar value of saving an innocent life?

Friday, June 12, 2015

Death Penalty Analysis: Adding Reality Back In

So from previous posts, argument from cost is the only possibly convincing argument to retain the death penalty. But there were simplifying assumptions I made; we left out a lot of the procedural differences between capital and non-capital cases.

Right now, death penalty cases are subject to additional expensive regulations that other cases aren't. There are two separate trials, lots of judicial oversight, and many additional prosecutor and defense resources are consumed. The appeals process is more complex, and most states provide appeals lawyers that are not constitutionally required to be provided in other appeals cases. All of that is paid for by the state. In theory, all of this is done to reduce the wrongful execution rate.

Let's assume it does. How does that change the arguments?
  • Argument from deterrence remains impossible to prove either way.
  • Argument from justice still falls against the death penalty, unless the government provided lawyers reduce the false execution rate to zero. Anyone willing to make that claim? I'm not.
  • Argument from public safety doesn't have quite as high a standard, as the wrongful execution rate doesn't have to quite get to zero. But given the extremely low escape-and-murder-again rates, it has to get very close to zero. Based on observational evidence, that doesn't seem to happen
  • Cost of the death penalty has now gone up substantially compared to life in prison. Executing someone now costs more than simply leaving them in prison forever. The death penalty just lost its only compelling argument.
In theory, the death penalty might make financial sense, if no other kind. In practice, as presently implemented, it doesn't even get that. With the present system, all four arguments work against the death penalty.

Friday, June 5, 2015

Death Penalty Analysis: Argument From Deterrence

It is argued that the death penalty acts as a deterrent in ways that other penalties don't, and thereby lowers the crime rate and improves public safety. I'll admit, that doesn't work for my psychology. Whether I lose my life after fifteen years in prison or after fifty, I've still lost my life. But that's just me. I'm not a representative sample.

We'll try to analyze this argument from a statistical perspective, as well. Going back to our public safety argument, we can figure that something like 120 innocent people are on death row right now. Since they'll be there for about fifteen years, that's about 8 innocents per year killed if we keep the death penalty. Will the deterrence effect of the death penalty existing prevent more murders than that?

The homicide rate in the US is about 14,000 per year. I can't find a number for how many of those are premeditated (and thus subject to deterrent effects), but we can come up with a reasonable number. There are about 100 new death sentences per year, and not all premeditated murders result in a death sentence due to differing laws and circumstances and plea bargains. So let's say 1,000 murders a year are premeditated. In that case, if the death penalty deters even 1% of potential premeditated murders, it makes up for the lost innocent lives.

That's an effect so small that almost no experiment I can imagine could convince me it existed. Smarter people than me have tried, and the results are similarly unconvincing. Given that, I think that's where deterrence has to land: it might work, it might not, and there's no way to tell. This argument is null in either direction.

Friday, May 29, 2015

Death Penalty Analysis: Argument From Cost of Alternatives

Presently, executing a person costs the state more than life imprisonment, largely due to the different laws and regulations around both. This is where reality doesn't match up with my theoretical arguments. We'll start with the theoretical arguments, though, and then see what changes when we add reality. Remember, this is an argument from cost alone, with no moral dimensions in play.

I've found a few numbers for cost-per-inmate-year. Let's pick a low one: $20,000 per year. An executed inmate consumed fifteen prisoner-years of resources, on average. A life-sentence inmate consumes on average 45 prisoner-years of resources, or three times that. That doesn't account for the increased the medical costs of housing an older person, but we'll ignore that for now. This time we're being generous to the anti-death-penalty argument.

So an executed inmate consumes $300,000, and a life inmate consumes $900,000. That's $600,000 saved per execution, all other things being equal. Even using very low costs for inmate housing, and ignoring the medical costs of older prisoners, this argument looks valid on the face of it.

But go back to the false conviction rate; one out of twenty-five inmates is innocent. By executing 25 people rather than sentencing them to life, you've saved $15 million, but at the cost of one innocent life!

Are you willing to spend $15 million to save an innocent life? Remember, that number is the anti-death-penalty extreme. Go the other way: drop the wrongful execution rate to 0.1% and use higher numbers for prisoner incarceration costs. Would you sacrifice one innocent to save $2 billion?

This is a serious question. Don't believe me? Shocked that anyone could ever put a dollar value on something like not killing an innocent person? Take it even further: what if the cost to save an innocent life was fifty trillion dollars? Would you destroy the economy of the whole world for one person? Of course not; far more people than one will die if you do that. At some point the cost of life imprisonment vs. execution overwhelms the state. That's why execution was ever an option in the first place; an impoverished society can not afford the resources to keep an unproductive member of society alive forever.

So what is the dollar value of an innocent human life? US GDP per capita over 45 years is only $2.5 million. More sophisticated statistical estimates come to around $9 million. Those numbers are instructive, but not comprehensive for such a bizarre question.

Or let's put it another way: say we spend $2b saving an innocent life. How many other innocent lives could we have saved spending that money in some other way? How many medical procedures does that pay for? How much food for the hungry? How much clean water? How much is society as a whole giving up to save that one innocent?

And it's not even that simple. Suppose you saved that $2b by executing an innocent, rather than leaving 999 guilty horrid murderers alive and in prison. We're not talking about spending that $2b to give that innocent his life back. We're talking about spending two billion dollars and still leaving an innocent person in jail forever. Is that enough of an improvement to be worth the cost? If given the choice between dying in jail as an old man, or dying now and knowing that $2 billion would be given to the poor, which would you pick?
Not that our government would actually give that money to useful causes; we'd probably invade Iraq again, or something. (They say you should play to your strengths...) But that doesn't answer anything one way or another. And I'm not saying I have the answers. I'm saying there is no easy answer. This is the terrible calculus of government, wherein lives are weighed against money.

All I can say is that the naive argument that the death penalty saves money works. We'll have to see what happens when reality comes back into play.

Friday, May 22, 2015

Death Penalty Analysis: Argument From Public Safety


It can be argued that public safety is served by killing such criminals. A dead person has literally zero chance of harming anyone. An imprisoned person can, in theory, escape and do more harm.

This is less clear-cut than the "justice" argument. People do escape prison, and sometimes they kill innocents while out. So if you execute terrible criminals you may kill innocents by mistake; but if you fail to execute them innocents may die anyway. Now we have an lives-to-lives comparison, if we can just dig up the statistics.

Per this (informal) source, less than 1% of prisoners escape, and most of those are people who walk away from minimum security work gangs, not murderers. Those numbers seem believable. We'll take that 1% number for now, being generous to the pro-execution argument.

Now, people sentenced to execution may still escape and kill people before they die. Time spent on death row varies, but the average is something like fifteen years, plenty of time to escape. The average age of prison admission in Florida is about 30, and while Florida is freakish in many ways, that's consistent with other numbers I'm seeing elsewhere. Let's also assume that a prisoner's average lifespan is about seventy-five years. So someone sentenced to die has about fifteen years to escape and kill again. Someone sentenced to life has about forty-five, or roughly three times that long.
(We'll simplify and assume that escapees are equally distributed by age, meaning a 74-year-old is as likely to escape as a 35-year-old. We'll also assume that an escaped 74-year-old who's spent his entire life in jail and a 35-year-old recent convict are equally dangerous to the general public. Again, we're being generous to the pro-execution argument. Stranger things have happened.)

According to the Bureau of Justice Statistics, there are roughly 170,000 murderers in prison. Per Wikipedia, roughly 3,000 are sentenced to die, and about 160,000 are sentenced to life, so that's consistent with the BJS data.

Now let's pretend we didn't have the death penalty. In that scenario, those 3,000 are sentenced to life instead. We're supposing that 1% of those, or 30, will escape, which again is generous in the extreme. We'll also suppose that a third of those escapes take place in the first 15 years of imprisonment, meaning they would have happened even with the death penalty. So now we have roughly 20 additional escaped murderers who would not have escaped if we'd executed them on schedule. And let's just assume they all kill one person before being recaptured (again, generous, as most escapees are captured very rapidly). So the death penalty saves twenty innocent lives, by this argument.

Now let's go back to our 4% false conviction rate. That means that of that 3,000 sentenced to die, roughly 120 are innocent. Let me say that again, just to get the full horror across: our government is going to kill 120 innocent Americans, no more guilty than you or me. That could be you, your neighbor, your family. This is not abstract, these are actual people that are going to die for no reason, no different than the innocents killed by those escaped prisoners.

Keep the death penalty and 120 innocent people die. Even assuming the wrongful execution rate is 1% instead of 4%, that's still 30 innocent deaths.

Eliminate the death penalty and 20 innocent people die, being extremely generous. For more realistic estimates of escape rates and the number of murders committed by escaped prisoners, a better number is more like two.

I don't see any way to massage these numbers to give a different result. Even being orders of magnitude more generous to the death penalty argument than is reasonable, the math doesn't work out. As long as our wrongful execution rate is higher than 1% and our escape-and-murder rate is less than 1%, the death penalty kills more innocent people than it saves. And the real numbers are a hundred times worse than that.

When evaluated with real-world data, the public safety argument works against the death penalty.

Sunday, May 17, 2015

Calibration elections

I've talked in the past about how trust in elections is critical. Right now the system simply can't be audited, by design. We have hyper-partisans building, installing, and maintaining closed systems with known flaws. There's no possibility of recount, and no way of knowing that your vote was counted correctly. As a recent example of this, in a recent UK election a candidate received no votes, despite claiming that he voted for himself. Regardless of that particular situation's outcome, it does lead to some more thoughts.

One of the biggest potential security holes in the election system is the secret ballot. Let me be clear: the secret ballot is absolutely critical to having a functioning democracy. We've all lived our lives in a world with nothing but, so maybe it's harder to see that. But consider what would happen if you could prove to anyone how you voted: your boss, your family, your religious group could threaten you into voting how they want. The only way you can be confident to cast your individual ballot by your preferences is if you can never prove to anyone how you voted.

The down-side is that you can never prove to yourself how your vote was counted. I've proposed better voting machines, based largely around maintaining secret ballots. But we still have reduced faith in elections as a whole because of this. But suppose that mixed among the actual elections we also had calibration elections. Elections not for real people, but only to make sure the system works.

A simple question would be asked. "What is your favorite pizza topping" for example; something utterly trivial and subjective. Ballots in the calibration election would be marked and counted with the exact hardware being used for the real elections. The only difference would be the ballots themselves, which would be marked with the voter's name. The voter would also receive an identical copy of the ballot to take home. All the results would be posted to the internet, for each individual to check.

You wouldn't be able to prove that your real votes were counted properly. But you would be able to at least prove that the system works. It would still be possible to cheat the system; nothing's perfect. But I, for one, would have far greater confidence in our elections if this was part of them.

Friday, May 15, 2015

Death Penalty Analysis: Argument From Justice, Retribution, or Punishment

It is argued that some people simply deserve to die; that, given what they've done, their continuing to live is inherently unjust, regardless of other considerations. This is related to the argument that the victims' survivors deserve retribution. Let's assume that this is so, and that our goal is to minimize the injustice in the universe. Sentencing such people to life in prison creates injustice, and is therefore bad.

The counter-point to this is that executing an innocent person is also unjust. All it does is create a new victim, and do nothing for the survivors of the original. So the injustice created by an avoided-but-deserved execution is one value. The injustice created by executing an innocent is another value. Now since we are trying to minimize injustice, we must ask: how many avoided executions does it take before that injustice exceeds the injustice of executing one innocent?

And remember, we're not talking about killing criminals to save money, or for public safety. We're talking about killing them as an end unto itself. Would you, personally, be willing to kill one innocent person if it meant you also got to kill ten jailed Hitlers? A hundred? A thousand? From a perspective of justice, how many deserved executions is an innocent life worth?

My answer is infinity. I don't care how many horrible criminals I have to leave living in a hole forever; executing one innocent person is worse. By the argument of justice, as long as there is any chance that you might ever execute an innocent person, that potential injustice outweighs all the possible injustice of leaving actual criminals alive.

Tolkien asked, "Some that die deserve life; can you give it to them?" Obviously the answer is no. What we can do is not add to their number. That, at least, is just.

Let me know when the odds of a wrongful execution reach zero. Otherwise, argument from justice works against the death penalty.

Sunday, May 10, 2015

Fraternal Order of Police Candidate Survey

Earlier this year I considered running for Nashville Metro Council. I took out the signature forms, but concluded I couldn't commit the time to do the job effectively, so I won't be turning them back in.

However, I have been put on all sorts of interesting mailing lists. I thought I'd share the results with you. This one is from the Fraternal Order of Police, Andrew Jackson Lodge No. 5.

  • Would you support the pay study plan and increase Metro Nashville Police Officers pay above mid range?
  • Would you support current employees keeping their earned pensions?
  • Would you support the current pension plan and allow this plant to remain in effect for current officers?
  • Would you support additional ZONE officers?
  • What is your position regarding body cameras for police officers? What are your recommendations for funding such a program? How would you rationalize rules for their use, keeping in mind Tennessee privacy laws, children and use inside of homes?
  • Do you support the relocation of the Police headquarters? The Metro Police Academy is in need of an indoor firing range and repairs made to the running track and runway due to multiple pot holes. Do you support allocating money for the Metro Police Academy?
  • What is your assessment on the current police administration?
  • Would you support a police chief being promoted from within the department?
  • Would you support an ordinance changing the civil service rules to include a Police Officers' Bill of Rights?
  • Will you promise not to make pledges or commitments that will limit Metro's ability to meet obligations to employees?
  • Will meet with the FOP board members on a regular basis?
  • Have you or will you sign a no tax pledge?
A lot of these questions make sense. They're concerned about officers' pay, pensions, and resources. I am interested in what their "right" answers are regarding body cameras, and what would be included in a Police Officers' Bill of Rights. I'm assuming it's similar to this, which all sounds perfectly reasonable. Would that civilians had some of those rights!

Now, what's the deal with a no-tax pledge? That seems to have zero to do with police work, except insofar as it makes it impossible to run a functional government, in many cases. In theory, that should mean they're against a no-tax pledge. But the Republican Party has often convinced people to vote against their own best interests; has that happened here? I can't tell.

Friday, May 8, 2015

Death Penalty Analysis: Introduction

I recently listened to the Intelligence Squared debate on the death penalty. I didn't have a definite opinion on capital punishment before that, but it helped me organize my thoughts. I'm writing this series to help me organize my thoughts further. As per usual, this is not a formal analysis. All my numbers are rough. I'm just seeing if any of these arguments have any chance at all of being valid.

For the purposes of this discussion, I am considering only people who have been convicted of literally the worst imaginable crime; I'd name one, but someone will come up with a worse one, so just use the worst crime you can imagine. If anyone deserves to be executed, it's these people.

I'm also considering that the alternative sentence for these crimes is life in prison, and I'm assuming that it is better for an innocent person to spend life in prison than to be executed. Admittedly that last bit is arguable, but it's the assumption I'm making.

The critical question, the one that determines this entire debate, is this: what are the odds of an innocent person being convicted?

One study puts that number at 4%. Out of 25 people convicted, one will be innocent. That number is shockingly high. Even if you dispute the actual number (and reasonable people can disagree, especially on capital cases), I don't think anyone would dispute that innocent people are convicted of crimes they didn't commit. If you do so dispute, please consider this list of confirmed wrongful convictions, and this one of wrongful executions. And I'd suggest watching this episode of Brain Games (presently available on Netflix streaming). Any conviction based primarily on eye-witness testimony is inherently suspect.

I've heard four arguments for capital punishment, which I will address independently. All of these are based on a somewhat fictional premise: that sentence is the only variable, and that once sentenced, a prisoner will be executed. In reality, that's not true, but we'll talk about the effects of that difference later. I'm trying to analyze the simple theoretical case before getting to the more complex real one. When we add the complexities back in, we'll see if my arguments change.

Thursday, April 2, 2015

Republican Congressional District Census

I just got a survey form in the mail from the Republican Party. Some of these questions are impressively leading. They're clearly asking questions so they can phrase the results the way they want for a sound bite, not so they can actually make policy decisions. And the questions are clearly worded to provoke anger and get the answer they want.

1) Do you generally identify yourself as:
  • Conservative Republican
  • Moderate Republican
  • Liberal Republican
  • Independent Voter who leans Republican
  • Tea Party Member
  • Libertarian
  • Other________
 ["Stephen"]

3) If you plan on voting in the 2016 Presidential elections, do you plan on voting for:
  • the Republican Nominee
  • the Democrat Nominee
  • Undecided
[Or, you know, the other dozen candidates...]

10) Do you believe the Republican Party should continue to embrace social issues or are these too divisive when it comes to winning elections?
  • Embrace
  • Too Divisive
  • No Opinion
[I'd rather the Republican Party not embrace social issues because their positions are often ignorant, unchristian, and stupid. It has nothing to do with being too divisive.]

1) Do you think things in our country are continuing to go in the wrong direction, or do you feel things are going in the right direction?
  • Wrong direction
  • Right direction
  • Unsure
[Things? There are many things! Some things are going right, some things are going wrong, and many, many things are going nowhere.]

3) Do you think our Republican leaders in Congress should be aggressive in forcing the Obama White House to work with them to create jobs, cut taxes and regulations, end economic uncertainty, and make America more competitive?

[Some of those things are contradictory...]

5) Do you favor a major overhaul of the current Federal Tax Code - currently thousands of pages long - that would replace today's burdensome tax system with one that is simpler and fairer?

[Well, yes. Of course, the Republican idea of doing that is typically "raise taxes on the poor so you can cut them on the rich." Obama's proposal to do literally exactly what this question asks, closing loopholes and simplifying deductions while remaining revenue neutral, was shot down immediately. Keep in mind, I don't like Obama; if anyone else was putting the lie to what these people claim to be their goals, I'd use them as an example instead.]

10) With revelations of "Fast and Furious", IRS abuses, the Benghazi cover-up, and other major scandals in recent years, do you feel Republican lawmakers on Capitol Hill have the right to hold government bureaucrats' feet to the fire and demand more transparency from the Obama administration?

[Do a bunch of manufactured, minor, or non-existent scandals justify demands for transparency? No. Demands for transparency shouldn't need to be justified. And I love how they're still referring to the Benghazi cover-up when their own repeated investigations concluded there was no cover-up.]

11) Do you believe more federal laws that impede individuals' Second Amendment rights are the proper response to recent gun violence in our nation?

[No, gun control isn't going to help much. But... did someone propose gun control laws while I wasn't looking? I'm really asking, here. Because after all the Republican talk of Obama coming to take all our guns six years ago, I haven't seen him make move one in that direction.]

12) Do you support Republican efforts to defer fully implementing ObamaCare and replacing it with something that will address the high cost of health care while maintaining the quality of care?

[The grammar here is weird. "...to defer implementing and replacing it..."? Anyway, I'd be open to the idea if the Republicans would make a specific proposal. I haven't heard anything with any details, except very rarely, and those details were nonsense upon examination. Probably because ObamaCare is the Republican plan. Was when Gingrich proposed it, was when Romney implemented it. They can't come up with better ideas because all of them have already been used.]

14) Do you favor Republican efforts in Congress to better strengthen our borders and fight President Obama's unconstitutional, unilateral decrees in writing new immigration policies?

[I don't think I could write a more leading question if I tried.]

1) Are Republicans in Congress right to fight back against the Obama Administration's efforts to severely cut America's military power?

[What efforts are these, then? Did I miss where we'd cut the number of carrier battle groups we maintain? Are we not still the core of the expanding NATO alliance? I'm pretty sure we've got a couple hundred thousand troops available now that weren't at the beginning of the Obama administration...]

3) Should America take military action if necessary to keep Iran and North Korea from obtaining nuclear weapons?

[Little late on NK obtaining nuclear weapons. If the US should have taken action to prevent that, you should have told Bush.]

6) Should the US take a more muscular attitude toward Russia as it moves toward re-establishing itself as a military and economic superpower?

[What does it mean for a country to take a muscular attitude towards another country? Obviously, the bigger intent of the question is to imply that our present attitude is insufficiently muscular. Under any circumstances, utterly crippling their economy is as muscular as I care to get. What, do you want a nuclear war? Don't answer that.]

Sunday, February 22, 2015

Circular Square

A year or two ago I ran off on a tangent and made a website I thought would revolutionize grocery shopping. I called it Circular Square. Simple concept: give it your zipcode, and it will search the major chains for locations near you. It gives you their addresses, links to Google Maps, and links to their weekly sales circulars.

You can then search all those sales (or some subset) for a particular item that might be on sale. It will come back with everything matching your search. It was essentially a giant collection of scrapers with a clean  single-page AJAX front-end. It took a good bit of work to make each scraper, but I ended up with eleven or so, covering half the major chains around Nashville.

Got a shopping list, and want to know the best place to get each item this week? Problem solved. This site could save you half an hour of searching through fliers.

Oh, but it gets better: you would be able to log in and save searches! The system would then email you when something you wanted to stock up on went on sale. Love Blue Bell ice cream, but only willing to buy it if you catch the rare half-price sale? Just watch your email! And on top of that, it would search the coupon sites too! This thing was going to be beautiful. You can still go to the site and get an idea of how it went. (Saved searches didn't work yet, though.)

But I ran into a slight problem: the websites I was scraping change constantly. After a year or two without maintenance, only six of the eleven scrapers still give location results, some of those links don't work properly, and only two still give sale results. It's still pretty sweet for Aldi and Harris Teeter, though!

At the time I concluded that this wasn't going to be worth the effort to maintain. But I'm starting to reconsider. I can obviously make this site work. I even enjoy writing the scrapers, it's a fun puzzle to solve. But the real problem is that it has to be worth my time. I see a few possible business models.

1) Completely free. I just use it for my own purposes, save my own money and time, and let others use my tools if they want to with no guarantees of functionality. I'm pretty confident I wouldn't end up maintaining it very long under this model, but if I had some help it might survive.

2) Ads. The search page itself contains ads, the emails contain ads, ads ads ads. Not the insane sort that flash and blink and start talking, but some relatively unobtrusive ones. Might offset the time cost some.

3) Subscriptions. You get some subset of services for free, but having more than say three saved searches costs you. So then my question is, what would you pay for this?

4) Additional services. Maybe it makes a giant grocery list, then hires an Uber driver to go pick it all up for you. Or something marginally less crazy?

So I'm throwing it out there. What do my readers (all three of you) think? Should I pick this project back up, finish it out, and maintain it for a while? Would anyone out there use it besides me?

Wednesday, January 21, 2015

Robin Hood conversation


A Facebook friend posted a link to this article. I found the following conversation interesting, so I've recorded it here.

Me: False dichotomy. Robin Hood both robbed an overreaching government, and stole from the rich to give to the poor. In his case they happened to be the same. The ultimate lesson doesn't change either way: allow wealth to become concentrated to the point that most people have difficulty making ends meet, and law and order breaks down. Surely nobody can believe that if everyone was starving, but it was because all the wealth had been acquired by legal monopolies, Robin would have just been fine with that situation.



(How bad do things have to be for a criminal to be the hero of the story? I could think of a few names in the last few years one could say that about, actually...)



Complete equality of outcome is idiocy, but government can remove all reward for hard work just as thoroughly by allowing unchecked concentration of wealth as by preventing it entirely. If you want a functioning market system, and more fundamentally a stable law abiding society, government is required, and must take a path between the two absurd extremes typically presented by neoconservative commentators.



Beware those who present you with such false dichotomies. They're trying to shut down your reasoning process. Just like sound bite politics.

Friend:  I understand your point. However, in the stories, he didn't steal from rich individual citizens. He stole from a wealthy government (King) or Church which came into its wealth by immoral means (robbing from poor families, unfairly taxing, requiring tithes)

Me: My point was that difference does not change the applicability of the story, nor would that difference have changed Robin Hood's actions. My greater point is that arguing over Robin Hood is a cheap distraction from the fact that the American lower and middle classes have been taking a beating for thirty-five years, while the rich get richer and leave the rest of us with no hope of bettering our situation.

Friend: I think the two are mutually exclusive. This position assumes all wealthy individuals achieved this wealth through illegal means, or immoral means. That simply is not true. 

Me: I make no such assumption. I do assume that having a stable society is preferable to having an unstable one, and that having a large number of desperately poor people and a few very rich ones leads to an unstable society. How those rich people got there is beside the point. You can argue over a standard of morality all you want, but at the end of the day you have robbery and food riots either way.

Ultimately, we're arguing over a marketing slogan, rather than discussing the actual issues that desperately need to be addressed.